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From Bucharest to Seoul: The Decline of the Trump Doctrine and Moscow’s Growing Leverage


In an article I published in December 2024, I argued that the institutional crises unfolding in Romania and South Korea were not isolated domestic developments but rather part of a broader international dynamic—an updated version of what used to be called "The Great Game." Now, midway through 2025, we can begin to draw some conclusions. These developments are shaping the geopolitical landscape in subtle yet significant ways, particularly with respect to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.


Romania has elected a new president, Nicușor Dan, a moderately pro-European technocrat with no strong party allegiance. While Dan lacks a dominant parliamentary majority and will need to build a capable presidential team, his stance on foreign policy is already signaling a shift. In a recent interview with Politico Europe, Dan firmly rejected the idea of deploying Romanian troops to Ukraine as part of any peacekeeping mission.

"Having major operational support on Romanian territory, yes. Being among the troops guaranteeing peace in Ukraine, no," Dan stated. "I don't think that would be very appropriate given the existing tensions between Romania and Russia."

This declaration marks a sharp contrast with the ambitions of the Trump-era approach to Eastern Europe. While Romania remains a strategic NATO bulwark, its new leadership is clearly focused on national stability and avoiding entanglement in volatile theaters. Dan also took aim at former U.S. President Donald Trump's conciliatory posture toward Vladimir Putin, calling it "deeply concerning."

By emphasizing that any decisions about Ukraine must ultimately rest with the Ukrainian people, Dan's message—intended or not—echoes one of Moscow's own talking points. While still within the Western orbit, Romania under Dan seems to be charting a more cautious, independent path. In this sense, we can say that the Trump Doctrine—at least in Romania—has effectively failed.


Across the globe, South Korea is undergoing a parallel transformation. In the most recent elections, the Democratic Party secured both the presidency and control of the National Assembly. If elected, Lee Jae-myung is poised to become one of the most powerful South Korean presidents in recent memory.

Traditionally, the Democratic Party has favored dialogue with North Korea and has been skeptical of aggressive foreign entanglements—especially those involving Eastern Europe. While some formal statements of support for Ukraine can be expected, a direct military involvement now seems off the table. This is a clear departure from the more hawkish stance taken by the previous administration, which had considered more assertive roles in global security under the Trump-aligned framework.

This recalibration, like in Romania, represents a setback for the MAGA vision of international alliances rooted in aggressive posture and transactional diplomacy. The Trump Doctrine appears to be losing traction, not only in Washington but also among key allied democracies.


Compounding the doctrinal retreat is the recent election of Pope Leo XIV, an American whose papacy has introduced a new mediating force into international diplomacy. In an unexpected but symbolically powerful move, the Vatican has offered to host a high-level Russia-Ukraine peace summit. This could be the opportunity Moscow has been waiting for—to frame itself not only as a military actor but as a potential broker of peace.

With Romania's strategic restraint and South Korea's inward turn, Moscow gains valuable breathing room. These developments may not change the course of the war overnight, but they shift the diplomatic balance in meaningful ways. Russia now faces fewer obstacles on its western and eastern flanks, and if it moves quickly to formalize peace proposals, it could catch the fractured Western bloc off guard.


The international order is entering a fluid phase. The decline of the Trump Doctrine, symbolized by electoral outcomes in both Romania and South Korea, has created space for more multipolar diplomacy. For Ukraine and its Western supporters, this is a moment of caution and recalibration. For Moscow, it may be the time to step out of its military crouch and onto the diplomatic stage.

Whether Russia will seize this opportunity responsibly remains to be seen. But for the first time in a long time, the pieces are moving not just on the battlefield—but at the negotiating table.

Marco Baratto

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